The Iranian response to Israel is preparing…more than one scenario is on the table and the confrontation is open

The Iranian threat to respond to Israel as a result of the attack that targeted Iranian military commanders in Damascus has raised fears of moving the conflict to a “different level” with the outbreak of a direct war between the two sides, especially with the level of tension between Tehran and Tel Aviv recently escalating to an unprecedented level.

Speaking to Sky News Arabia, military experts and analysts believe that a direct war between Israel and Iran threatens to cause the situation in the region to spiral out of control, as Iran will open wide fronts through its official army, the Revolutionary Guards, and its agents in the region against “sensitive” Israeli interests internally and externally, and from Including oil fields and military and diplomatic facilities, while Israel will not hesitate to target the Iranian depth and carry out specific strikes that include the leaders of the armed factions allied with Tehran.

Targeting military sites

Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs, Mike Mulroy, said in an interview with “Sky News Arabia” that the war between Israel and Iran “will be devastating and major” because both countries possess great military capabilities, while the confrontations may spread to other countries in the region. .

Mulroy, who previously worked for the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), explained that Iran will likely be forced to attack directly by targeting military sites inside Israel itself in the first stage, but if this attack is intercepted, it may mean freezing the current crisis, But if an Israeli soldier is killed, this difficult conflict will escalate to unprecedented levels.

Mulroy pointed out that the conflict turning into a direct confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv is an increasingly likely scenario, although Iran does not want that, as it will use various military and intelligence means in that war.

A devastating confrontation

The military and strategic expert, Mahmoud Mohieddin, speaking to Sky News Arabia, explained that although it is believed that a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel is unlikely at this stage, if it occurs it will be “devastating.”

Regarding the nature of this war between the two sides, Mohieddin pointed out that if the confrontation occurs, it will expand to target state centers on both sides and vital installations, provided that this will be in the form of Iranian missile strikes on Israeli cities and territories from inside Iran and through its agents in the region.

He added: “The Iranian attacks will also affect Israeli interests at sea, especially gas fields and commercial ships, as well as diplomatic facilities, with the expansion of intelligence operations.”

The military expert believes that the Israeli response will not be too late, as Israel’s ballistic missiles will soon reach the Iranian depths, with the circle of confrontation expanding to include the “Resistance Alliance” completely and in an unprecedented manner in the region, adding: “Certainly the Israeli response will be violent on Iranian territory and this “What neither party wants.”

3 war scenarios

Speaking to Sky News Arabia, Ghassan Muhammad, an analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, believes that a direct war between Israel and Iran has 3 specific scenarios, including:

A limited war that lasts for several days, during which attacks are exchanged between Iran and Israel, and stops after the intervention of external parties and forces.

– A regional war in which several fronts participate against Israel, including the Yemeni front, southern Lebanon, and the Golan, with support from Iraq. The West Bank front may join this war, and in this case the “unity of the arenas facing Israel” scenario will be achieved.

A broader war in which the United States will directly participate, although this possibility is weak, as Washington may be content with supporting Israel militarily and politically without getting directly involved in the war.

On Iran’s part, Muhammad explained that there are many questions being raised within Israeli circles about the front that Iran will choose for attacks, including the response front, whether Lebanon, the Golan, or Yemen, and the same method, either by launching long-range missiles deep into Israel, or striking Israeli embassies in nearby countries. Such as Azerbaijan, or launching suicide drones, as happened in the attack on the Eilat naval base.

However, Mohammed indicated that direct war does not seem imminent for the main reason that all parties do not want war, at least at this stage.

Shadow war

The American expert specializing in security and strategic affairs, Irina Tsukerman, told Sky News Arabia that any direct military action would lead to widespread retaliation with potential existential repercussions for senior Iranian officials.

Tsukerman noted that there has already been a direct “shadow war” going on between Iran and Israel for years, with Tehran trying to carry out kidnappings and assassinations against Israelis, sending spies, and supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, and Israel, for its part, is believed to be behind various attacks on military targets. And economic inside Iran, and specific assassinations.

She added, “The occurrence of a direct confrontation has been proposed for a long time, and regardless of the fact that these are not the first Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials to be liquidated by Israel in Syria, this is the most serious incident of this kind since the assassination of Qasem Soleimani.”

An Israeli vision of confrontation

Israeli political analyst Shlomo Ganor said that Israel will respond to any Iranian action that affects it, explaining that Benjamin Netanyahu’s warning carries within it the type of response to any Iranian act of retaliation, as he said, “We will strike everyone who does or plans to harm us,” meaning that the type of response depends on The type of attack, its planners, and the extent of the losses resulting from this attack.

Ganor stated in statements to the “Sky News Arabia” website that, so far, all possibilities are possible regarding the level of conflict between Israel and Iran, but he suggested that a direct confrontation between the two countries would not occur, considering that a “weak possibility” given the preventive military measures taken by Israel on the one hand, On the other hand, there is no evidence that Iran is ready to enter into a direct confrontation with Tel Aviv currently.

He pointed out that Israel, at the official and popular levels, is highly prepared to confront external threats, especially from “a ferocious enemy like Iran, which announces its goal of wiping Israel off the map.” Therefore, the measures taken recently come in anticipation of any hostile action by Iran or its agents, whether inside or outside the country. Israel or against Israeli or Jewish targets abroad, although Israel does not officially acknowledge its responsibility for what happened in Damascus.

Ganor continued, saying: “However, I do not think that Iran in the current international situation will respond to Israel directly, for fear of the repercussions of this on its international and internal situation, especially its nuclear project, which it seeks to advance away from the limelight, but it may take action through its agents and in abroad, and perhaps after a long preparation, but not soon.”

Worrying indicators

The Iranian threat to punish Israel for the Damascus attack is still ongoing, as the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami, said that “the actions of the (Israeli) enemy against Iran will not go unanswered,” adding that “Israel is within reach and it knows what will happen.” .

The aerial bombardment destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian consulate in Damascus on Monday, and also killed seven members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, led by the commander of the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and the leader, Mohammad Hadi Rahimi, which sparked Iranian anger to “retaliate” against the perpetrators of the attack. .

On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran against launching an attack against his country, saying, “Israel is taking measures against Iran and its agents, in defense and attack, and we will know how to defend ourselves and we will act according to the simple principle: whoever harms us or plans to do so, we will harm him.” Harm”.

The American website Axios reported, citing Israeli officials, that Israel had informed its ally, Washington, that if Iran launched an attack on Israel from its territory, it would face a strong response, and this would take the current conflict to another level.

Israel approved a number of security measures during the past hours in anticipation of any possible Iranian response. The Israeli army mobilized its forces and called in reserve soldiers to strengthen its defenses. Granting leave to all its units was stopped, along with the security system activating the jamming system on the GPS “G” positioning system. BS” throughout Israel.

According to a Channel 12 news report, if Iran responds with an attack from within its territory, this will push the Israeli army to take “major retaliation,” which could lead to escalation of tensions in the region.

Reuters quoted an Iranian official as saying that Tehran “is forced to take a serious response to deter Israel from repeating such attacks or escalation,” but he added that the level of response will be limited and aims to deter.


Back to top button

Adblock Detected

please turn off ad blocker