The expected Iranian response.. Will Washington prevent a response?

The media and military atmosphere in the region is now treating the Iranian response as occurring, and from Iranian territory, directly against Israel, with what this means of the possibility of the situation developing and the battles turning into a comprehensive war if Israel decides to respond to the Iranian response and target Iranian territory. Thus, there has become a consensus that the war that began on October 7 has actually moved to a new stage that may lead to something approaching a regional conflict that can never be controlled.

It is clear that the Iranian response is taking place, especially since Iran cannot bypass the direct Israeli escalation against it, which practically targeted Iranian territory, even if it was in Syria, and bypassed all diplomatic rules and international laws. This gives Tehran great legitimacy with a balanced response, as well as Iran’s continuation of its policy of patience. The strategy will expose it within a short time to Israeli strikes that are more dangerous than targeting the consulate, and there may be nothing more dangerous than this targeting other than directly targeting Iranian territory and bombing vital installations there.

Tel Aviv is trying to live with the possibilities of an Iranian response, and is seriously seeking to take measures to make this response, whatever its nature, less important. In other words, if the Israeli air defenses are able, for example, to shoot down the Iranian missiles or drones that are supposed to be launched at them, It will end the practical effectiveness of the response, and therefore Tel Aviv will not be forced to respond to the response, which will open the door to a major rollback in the field sense on more than one front, including the Iraqi and Syrian fronts, and perhaps even the Lebanese fronts.

Washington, in one way or another, gave the green light to Iran to respond to the Israeli field move by disavowing knowledge of the intentions that the Netanyahu government had toward the consulate. This means that Washington will not be part of the clash that might occur if Iran responds, and in the event The expected clash remained limited. Hence, informed sources confirm that the Americans will pressure Israel to contain the Iranian response and not escalate if it occurs, similar to what happened after the Iranians targeted the Ain al-Assad base after the assassination of Soleimani.

This tense reality may remain prevalent so that the axis can set decisive rules for the post-response phase, but what is more important is what may happen by Iran’s allies, or what is known during the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle as the supporting fronts, as escalation from Lebanon and Iraq will be one of the inappropriate responses. More than one relevant military official has hinted at this, and perhaps what the Iraqi factions did yesterday suggests the possibility of expanding the scope and effectiveness of strikes from Iraq.

Even the missiles that were launched from Syria a few days ago towards the Golan Heights constituted a qualitative shift in the movement of the Syrian front, which may be one of the cards of the “axis” that may be used to put an end to the Israeli escalation on Syrian territory, and since Tel Aviv is constantly bombing Damascus, what is the deterrent that will prevent the latter? From opening the door to clashes from its territory, especially since the fighting groups close to Iran have extensive capabilities in Syria and only need a political decision…