Economically…this is what any war against Hezbollah will do to Israel!

The Israeli newspaper reviewed the economy’s performance in the last quarter of 2023, as it maintained its status despite the collapse of foreign investments. Considering the geopolitical and social situation caused by the Israeli government then, the economy is facing the problem of the government’s “failed budget”.

Debt jump

“Calcalist” indicated that the expected direct result of these matters is that the debt ratio will jump in the coming years from 60% to 66% of the gross domestic product and perhaps more, noting that economists at the “Fitch” credit agency warned last week that “ The combination of permanent military expenditures and uncertainty about macroeconomic trends could cause debt to emerge even after 2025.”

She said that the budget deficit is expected to be higher than 3% of GDP due to the war, which, unlike the Corona crisis, which was a global crisis, is a crisis directly related to Israel.

Alarming numbers

She added that as a result of the policy followed, interest rates, debts and expenditures are rising, and tax revenues are not recovering, continuing: “The numbers are worrying. Since October 7, a budget increase worth 83 billion shekels has already been approved, and it was achieved for the purpose of dealing with the war, in addition to The 2017 plan (multi-year plan) amounts to another 68 billion shekels over five years.”

The newspaper said that the important conclusion and conclusion is that another war, expected to be more difficult than the first war that has not yet ended, could cause a major financial crisis that usually leads to a longer-term recession.

Growth forecasts

The newspaper talked about another problem in the Israeli economy, which is the discouraging expectations for economic activity growth, pointing out that until 2024 growth expectations remained low, between 2% and 1.9%, a number that reflects slow movement and zero or negative growth per capita, and at the same time It also began updating growth forecasts for 2025 in a descending manner.

Previous crises

The Israeli newspaper reported that the Israeli economy after the October War took a full decade to recover and return to its starting point. During the “difficult” years of the second Intifada, the economy fell into a state of recession and the shekel collapsed, the price of the dollar reached 5 shekels, the foreign exchange index lost about 55% of its value, and the deficit and debts rose along with unemployment.

She continued: “Many years will pass before the Israeli economy is able to return per capita growth to its level, in contrast to short rounds of fighting,” noting that the current war is very long, and the recovery period may be long.

[previous_post_link]

Back to top button

Adblock Detected

please turn off ad blocker