Assassinations and influence? This awaits Hamas in Lebanon!

This issue is not easy at all and is not unusual. The entry of “Hamas” into Lebanon through the leadership portal will make it more stable here, while its influence struggle with the “Fatah” movement will escalate greatly.

New influence?

It is no secret to the Palestinians in Lebanon that the “rivalry” between “Hamas” and “Fatah” did not subside during the Gaza war. On the contrary, the alienation between the two parties increased even more. According to sources in the “Fatah” movement, the entry of “Hamas” into the line in Lebanon will not be that simple, while the scenario of its leaders moving to Lebanon will only happen in one case, which is “the movement’s defeat inside Gaza.”

The sources point out that it is not possible to talk about the fundamental influence of “Hamas” inside Lebanon, as any departure of its officials from their current locations will not be a card of strength for them, and therefore betting on expanding influence from Lebanon will not find much resonance in Palestinian circles, not even on Level of Lebanese circles.

In practice, what will hinder Hamas’ efforts to establish its influence within the Palestinian camps in Lebanon is that Lebanese and Arab recognition focuses exclusively on the Palestine Liberation Organization as the primary representative of the Palestinians. As for “Hamas”, after the Gaza War, the balances will differ regarding it, even if there is a high percentage of support for it in the Palestinian street, and this matter has become decided on the popular side. Quite simply, the “Hamas fandom” has risen with the consensus of all research and monitoring centers, but that will not be sufficient or a justification for the rise of “Hamas” to the level of influence.

Integration into a modern Palestinian formation?

Sources say that the gateway to Hamas’ political stability can only be achieved through its integration into a modern Palestinian formation that is not hostile to Fatah or the PLO, as is the case now.

If a little consideration is given to the content of this matter, it will be a prelude to consolidating the status of “Hamas”, at least inside Palestine, which will strengthen its card, at least during the next stage, as long as it is still currently negotiating on the level of the Gaza war, and is considered a party present at the table of discussions regarding the stage. Coming.

But on the other hand, the sources do not rule out that Hamas is far from this scenario due to many considerations related to the war and its circumstances. At the movement level, everything that happened during this battle revealed to it many things that it had to know, and therefore it is completely impossible to move to a new political situation so easily without first acknowledging its popular power, which imposes itself as a reality on all other Palestinian parties.

Assassinations… possible?

What the sources do not rule out is that any entry of Hamas leaders into Lebanon, regardless of the scenario of their involvement here or the extent of their movement, will face the dilemma of assassinations that will be carried out by Israel, and Lebanon is considered fertile ground for the completion of these plans.

If the movement’s leaders are stationed inside the Lebanese camps, Israel is able simply and through its agents to easily implement the targets it wants. However, if things go towards “Hezbollah” embracing the movement’s leaders, the party’s security and geographical environment will be exposed to an additional security breach more than before, and this matter will be indispensable to “Hezbollah” in the coming times because the primary goal for it is to restore its intelligence base after All the cracks I had.

In summary, the aspects of the next stage will not be easy for Lebanon, as the previous experience with the Palestinians following the Cairo Agreement in 1969 was bitter, and made the Palestinian presence firmly established to this day… Will this matter be repeated? Will we have a new “Hamas Land” in Lebanon?