The first stage of the Gaza Agreement is over .. Gaza’s fate on the table between renewed fighting and continuing the truce

Al -Hurra website wrote: Representatives from Israel, Qatar and the United States participate in “extensive talks” in Cairo to determine the coming stages of the armistice agreement between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, amid questions about what will happen after the end of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, on Saturday.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent negotiations to Cairo after Hamas handed over, on Wednesday evening, the bodies of four hostages who were detained in Gaza in exchange for the release of more than 600 Palestinian detainees from Israeli prisons.

This was the last exchange between the two parties in the framework of the first stage of the agreement that ends on Saturday, which began to work on January 19 after 15 months of the devastating war. At a time when there are 58 hostages in Gaza, including 34, the Israeli army confirms that they were killed.

The second -stage negotiations, which include ending the war, were supposed to begin permanently and complete the release of the hostages, during the six weeks of the first stage, but this has not yet been reached.

Hamas expressed its willingness to release all the hostages “at once” during the second stage, but the Associated Press stated that reaching this stage will be difficult, as it is possible that Israel will force the choice between two main goals in the war: the hostage return safely, or the elimination of Hamas completely.
Extension of the first stage
One of the possibilities is that instead of moving to the second stage, Israel may try to extend the first stage for further exchange of hostages against the detainees.

“On Sunday, Sunday, he hopes to negotiate the second stage during the extension of the first stage.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly did not support the idea of ​​extending the first stage. It is under pressure from the militants in his ruling coalition to resume the war against Hamas, but it also faces pressure from the Israelis to return the remaining hostages to their homeland.

Wittakov said that Netanyahu is committed to returning all hostages, but he put a “red line” that Hamas would not be part of the Gaza government after the war, and Netanyahu excluded any role of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza.

Analysts say, according to the New York Times, that talking about the extension of the first stage reflects how hopes for reaching an agreement for the second stage and a rapid end of the war may fade.

The question that is now arises is, how long can this extension continue? David Mcovoski, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former US State Department consultant.

For Netanyahu, it is a mixture of strategic conviction and political accounts. I think he really believes that power is the only way to deal with Hamas, and this is reinforced by the political account of the Secretary of Finance Smotrich, who said that he would overthrow the government if the Prime Minister does not eliminate Hamas. ”

“I think they will fight,” added Mcovoski, according to the Washington Post, if Netanyahu should choose between the second stage or more war.

Signs from President Trump
President Donald Trump said he was credited with the ceasefire, who helped Wattouf pushing him to the finish line after a year of negotiations led by the Biden, Egypt and Qatar administration.

But Trump has since sent conflicting signals about the agreement. Earlier this month, set a final date for Hamas to release all hostages, warning that “hell will explode” if they do not.

But he said in the end that the matter was returning to Israel, and the deadline came and passed without any change.

Later on, President Trump suggested that the Gaza population of about two million Palestinians be transferred to other countries and that the United States take over and develop matters in the Strip.

Netanyahu welcomed the idea, which was rejected by the Palestinians and the Arab countries, but Trump held the plan in an interview with Fox News during the weekend but said he “does not impose it.”

Vladalphia axis
While the first stage of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas ends tomorrow (Saturday) the future of the armistice remains unclear. But what will happen in the border strip between Egypt and Gaza next week may provide an indication of how things are progressing.

According to the three -part ceasefire agreement, the Israeli forces are supposed to start withdrawing from the Vladalphia corridor six weeks after the truce began, coinciding with the end of the first stage of the agreement that will be stunned on Saturday night.

Israel is supposed to start withdrawing its forces on Sunday from the border area, and leave it completely by the end of next week.

Benjamin Netanyahu has long said that Israeli control there is a basic national security interest, which gives ambiguity to this step.

The Vladalphia axis, is a 8 -miles border tape that separates Gaza from Egypt, and it appeared as a main disagreement point in the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas.

The borders that divide the city of Rafah were established under the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty in 1979.

After Hamas completely took control of Gaza in 2007, its fighters and officials supervised the borders of the Gaza Strip with Egypt and the Rafah crossing, which is the only way out from Gaza to the outside world that Israel is not supervised directly.

Israeli officials said Hamas was evading weapons and equipment for its fighters across the Egyptian border, and Netanyahu described this corridor as “a Hamas oxygen valve.”

The Israeli forces advanced through the axis as part of their military attack on Gaza, and then, Netanyahu argued for several months that leaving the area would endanger Israeli security by allowing Hamas to reinforce itself.

But at the same time, Netanyahu committed to withdraw from the border area as part of the ceasefire agreement.

Will Israel withdraw already?
Israel agreed to leave the border area on the fifty day of the armistice, which is supposed to happen in early March, and not to adhere to this promise will increase the uncertainty in the already fragile armistice.

But if it is withdrawn according to the schedule, this may contribute to paying the efforts made by the brokers to secure the next steps in the ceasefire.

The New York Times says that both Israel and Hamas have reasons to avoid another round of fighting, as Hamas wants to give its forces an opportunity to recover, while Israel wants to return the remaining hostages to their homeland. But the possibility of a comprehensive agreement is still far.

Israel has made the comprehensive agreement conditional on the end of Hamas’s control of Gaza and disarmament from the Strip, which Hamas rejects greatly.

Hamas weapon
With the end of the first stage of the agreement approaching, it appears that Israel and Hamas, along with the administration of President Donald Trump and the brokers from Arab governments, are out of an agreement to move to the second decisive stage of the ceasefire.

At the heart of the stalemate now, the question lies: Can Hamas be persuaded, or pressured, to surrender its weapons and leave Gaza, or will Netanyahu be ready to settle and pay the political price?

Analysts, according to the Washington Post, say Netanyahu and Hamas leaders are facing conflicting political pressure that makes reaching an agreement for the second stage more difficult than the first, and the resumption of war may be just a matter of time.

For Netanyahu, who has long announced that his goal in the war is to eliminate Hamas, a decision to end the war before the group agreed to disarm its partner will be angry with the extreme right -wing coalition, the Minister of Finance at Taslal Smotrich, who pledged to bring down the Netanyahu government if the group was not eliminated as a political and military force.

In the coming weeks, Netanyahu will need to support Smotrich more than ever to pass the budget before the deadline on March 31 and avoid elections.

As for Hamas, abandoning its weapons contradicts its declared goal in launching an armed struggle against Israel until its withdrawal from all Palestinian lands.

Hamas officials recently stated that they are open to the sharing of power with other Palestinian factions in Gaza, but they insisted on maintaining their combat capabilities, a similar role that was played by Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hamas said it was ready to hand over Gaza’s control to other Palestinians, but it refused to propose Israel to go to exile. This means that the armed group, which does not recognize the existence of Israel, will remain rooted in Gaza.

Israeli internal pressures
The influence of the extremist right members within the ruling Netanyahu coalition was publicly visible.

Days after the approval of the ceasefire agreement to the Israeli government’s vote in January, Smotrich, who believes that settlement in the West Bank and Gaza is a religious duty, on the X platform that he put pressure on Netanyahu to add extensive military operations in the West Bank to the goals of the current war of Israel.

Inside the Israeli security establishment, the idea of ​​re -entering Gaza was met with resistance from some officials, who have argued that Israel could not achieve any other military targets after a 15 -month battle.

However, the Israeli army has prepared plans to renew the fighting more severely with a special focus on preventing the smuggling of humanitarian aid by Hamas.

Defense Minister, Israel Katz, asked the army to explore plans to control and distribute humanitarian aid flowing into the lands, an idea that was rejected by his predecessor, Yoav Gallant, for practical and legal reasons, according to Israeli officials who spoke to the Washington Post.

With the appearance of hostages who have been held in Hamas from Gaza in recent weeks, many Israelis called on Netanyahu to move forward to the next stage and liberate all those captured.

70 percent of Israelis supports their country in the second stage of the agreement, ensuring the liberation of all the remaining hostages and ending the war, according to a poll conducted by the Israeli Democracy Institute between January 28 and February 2.

And internal presses in Gaza
In Gaza, Hamas is also facing the increasing frustration between the Palestinians because the ceasefire did not improve the living conditions and the reconstruction operations have not started.

With the continued lack of bulldozers, fuel and tents, the returning residents have struggled to the devastating northern part of the Strip to find a place to establish temporary tents in the ruins. Many of them are still unable to remove the bodies of their relatives from under destroyed houses.