A British report speaks .. What is the fate of Hezbollah’s weapon?

The report says that on the twenty -sixth of last January, thousands of Lebanese displaced people, who lived throughout the country, tried to return to their homes in southern Lebanon, and added: “The displaced went in convoys, sang revolutionary songs, and proudly waved the flags of Hezbollah, Many of them became clear that after more than a year of war, there are no longer homes to return to them. They were saddened by what they lost, and between the ruins of destroyed buildings, they put memorial posters for the late Secretary -General of the martyr Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah.

He continued: “That date represented the end of the deadline for the withdrawal of the Israeli forces, and this was part of the ceasefire agreement that was carried out by American and French, and this required Hezbollah withdrawing its weapons and fighters from southern Lebanon.”

He added: “The agreement also included the deployment of thousands of Lebanese soldiers in the region, but Israel said that Lebanon did not fully apply the agreement, and as a result, not all Israeli forces withdrawn. On the other hand, Lebanon accused Israel of procrastination.

He said: “It was not surprising that the matter was not without violence. In some areas, the Israeli soldiers opened their fire, and 24 Lebanese, including a soldier, were killed. However, for Hezbollah, that occasion was an opportunity to show strength, after receiving strong strikes during the conflict with Israel .. However, can the party survive the wave of changes in Lebanon and reshape the forces in the Middle East?

The report indicates that “over the years, Hezbollah has strengthened its position as the strongest party in Lebanon, and built, supported by Iran, a greater military force than the Lebanese army,” explaining that the party has a parliamentary bloc in Parliament and has representatives in governments.

The last conflict began in October 2023, when Hezbollah opened a second front against Israel, when the latter launched a war in Gaza in response to the Hamas attack.

Harmical works increased dramatically last September, when Israel penetrated the party in unimaginable ways. Initially, the Bejids carried by its members exploded, then wireless devices exploded.

An uncompromising air campaign and a later invasion of southern Lebanon resulted in the death of more than 4 thousand people, including many civilians, and the areas with a large presence of Shiite Muslims – who constitute the supportive bloc of Hezbollah – left in a state of ruin, and caused severe damage to the party’s arsenal, as well as The report says.

Many party leaders were assassinated, most notably Nasrallah, who was the party’s face for more than three decades. For his part, Sheikh Naim Qassem, the former second man in the party, admitted that the latter incurred painful losses.

Here, the report adds: “In light of the new reality, the Lebanese parliament recently elected last month as a new president of the country, former army commander Joseph Aoun, who was preferred by Americans, after more than two years of stalemate attributed by the critics of Hezbollah. After the party weakened, it was unable to obstruct the operation as he did in the past.

In another indication of the decline of the party’s position, deputies, Nawaf Salam, chose prime minister, who was the head of the International Court of Justice, a person who is not allied to Hezbollah, says the report.

It seems that Hezbollah is now focusing on other priorities, its base, according to the report, which added: “The party told its followers that the loss in the war is a victory, but many know that the truth is otherwise. Their societies are destroyed, and the value of damage to buildings is estimated at more than three billion dollars, according to the World Bank.

In a country with a collapsed economy, no one knows who will help – if someone will help, the international support has been linked to the government taking measures that limit Hezbollah’s authority.

The party paid compensation to some families, as it did after the 2006 war, but there are already indications of discontent, according to the report.

“If people are still inhabited inside the tents after passing. Six months, or above the rubble of their homes, they may start to blame Hezbollah instead of the government or Israel, and for that reason they are doing their best now to try to prevent this in advance. ”

“In the current context, you can repel Hezbollah a little.”

In addition, the report said: “In the midst of everything that happened, a new chapter was opened in Lebanon, the exhausted country of corruption. In the department’s speech before the Lebanese parliament, the new President Joseph Aoun promised ambitious and long -term reforms, knowing that without radical changes, Lebanon cannot be saved. He pledged to rebuild public institutions, revive the economy, and most importantly, made the Lebanese army the only side to carry weapons in the country. Aoun, Hezbollah, did not mention the name, but this was what he meant. The council applauded it enthusiastically, while Hezbollah’s deputies were silently.

Regional

However, the report says that “the decision regarding the presence of Hezbollah as a military force will be probably taken away from Lebanon – in Iran,” and added: “For decades, Tehran has invested, through weapons and money, in a regional alliance called the resistance axis, which formed an episode Fire around Israel. ”

He added: “Hezbollah was the main player. With thousands of well -trained fighters who are trained in battles, and a huge arsenal that includes long -range guided missiles on the threshold of Israel, the group worked as a deterrent method against any Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear installations. Currently, deterrence is still, and if Iran wants to rebuild it, it will not be easy.

The report considered that “the fall of the regime of former Syrian President Bashar al -Assad in Syria last December – partly due to Hezbollah’s setbacks – cut the wild pass that Tehran was using to arm and finance the party. Here, Israel, which collected extensive intelligence information about Hezbollah, says it will continue to launch attacks on it to prevent its attempts to re -armed.

“Iran alone can really answer the basic questions,” Lianford said to me, adding: “There is a possibility that Iran or Hezbollah will decide differently, such as giving up arms or that Hezbollah becomes only a political party and a social movement.”

Nevertheless, Blancord believes that “this is Iran’s decision, and not in the hands of Hezbollah.”

In addition, a source familiar with the internal affairs of Hezbollah was asked whether it is realistic to talk about his weapon, and he said: “The issue can be part of greater regional negotiations.” Al -Nawawi.

The source added: “There is a difference between giving up weapons completely or working in a framework with the state regarding their use, which is another possibility.”

On the other hand, the report says that “the new Lebanese leaders are pressure to move quickly, as foreign allies sees that the balance of the reshaped powers in the Middle East represents an opportunity to weaken Iran’s influence more, while the Lebanese yearn for some stability and the feeling that laws apply to everyone.”