Who will fill Iran’s vacuum in Syria after Assad? 3 parties may enter the line
The report says that the strategic strikes that Irah received in recent months pushed it to… A “gradual withdrawal” from the regional influence equation in which Tehran has sought to extract a role for decades, so questions remain about who will fill the vacuum created by Iran’s decline.
The report lists that Iran suffered major losses following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and the military strikes received by Hezbollah in Lebanon, not to mention the assassination of key leaders in the axis of resistance within the region, led by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, the martyr Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and the director of the political office of the movement. Hamas” Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran.
3 eligible parties
Dr. Abdel Moneim Saeed, Director of the Regional Center for Strategic Studies, believes that the possibilities of a new civil war in Syria “still exist,” especially in light of fears of a model similar to Afghanistan, with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham controlling the reins of power in Damascus, which He threatens, in his opinion, that “the region will be full of weapons and militants,” indicating in this context that “that sensitive situation” will push “certain forces” to “fill the vacuum, restore order, and build a political process, relying on a strong party in charge.” Managing this country.”
He believes that the first party qualified to fill the void in Syria is Turkey, “which has already supported Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian opposition factions in the battle to overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s regime. It also has military bases and forces in Syria, and it had previously carved out Syrian lands when it seized the Iskenderun district ( Hatay) in the northwest of the country in 1939, in addition to statements by Turkish officials, in which they considered Aleppo to be a Turkish city.”
Saeed considered that there is a kind of connection between the current and perhaps future Turkish influence, with the Ottoman history on the one hand, and with “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham,” which is at the forefront of the Syrian scene on the other hand.
American officials said that Türkiye and its allies are mobilizing forces along the border with Syria, amid fears that Ankara is preparing for a large-scale incursion into lands controlled by Syrian Kurds.
The former Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Egyptian Al-Ahram Foundation believes that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes in “new Ottomanism,” which is based on restoring Turkish influence in states that were previously under the control of the Ottoman Empire, but nevertheless “the arena will not be completely empty for him, as it will not accept… The United States wants Syria to be under the control of only one country, and the fall of the Assad regime coincides with the approaching inauguration of Donald Trump as president, and the latter does not prefer to get involved in any region,” he said.
But Dr. Abdel Moneim Saeed adds: “America is not Trump, and even if he refuses to play a role in Syria, the American deep state may have another position. Trump may not deploy additional forces in Syria, but Washington can influence the scene without having soldiers.” On the ground, it is the second candidate after Turkey to fill the void in Syria, and it is mainly located in the east and northeast of the country, as there is a kind of American commitment to the Kurds, and they control approximately 30% of the territory of Syria, and they have historical dreams. With independence.”
As for the third party nominated to influence the Syrian scene, Saeed says, it is Israel, as he believes that it “will not allow chaos in Syria, and even if the deepening of the Israeli army’s incursion into the Syrian geographical depth is unlikely, they will play a major role in trying to fill the political vacuum.” “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously spoke about reshaping the Middle East again.”
Arab caution
Regarding the Arab position, Abdel Moneim Saeed believes that it appears “very cautious” regarding the surprising developments in Syria, and added: “The alliance of the Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan and Morocco includes countries that have a vision for the future of the region represented by reform projects of an economic and social nature, and they are pursuing balanced policies in Their international relations with the United States, China, Russia and others.”
He continued: “These Arab countries want regional stability, and therefore we expect that they will try to fill the void in Syria, but so far there has not been a collective will to do so, and perhaps the issue may take a turn towards how to defeat the Muslim Brotherhood and their ideology, as there was fear of the Brotherhood’s ideology controlling the country.” Syria. There also appears to be an Arab trend of “let’s wait and see, what can other powers do in Syria?” adding: “I believe the Arab countries, especially Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Jordan, are closely monitoring the course of events.”
Dr. Abdel Moneim Saeed suggested that Syria will witness “a kind of conflict during the next stage, as the goals and agenda of each player differ, according to their interests on the one hand, and their vision for the new regime on the other hand.” (Al-Sharq News)
