Between yesterday’s power and today’s crises Has the party collapsed?
May 27, 2025
Did the party collapse?
As late as 2024, Hezbollah was categorized as one of Iran’s most powerful arms in the Levant, a key player in regional conflicts and a decisive voice in Lebanon. However, rapid and escalating developments have pushed Hezbollah to an unusually defensive position, after its combat and political tools gave it relative superiority in the local and regional arena.
Uncalculated escalation and deadly consequences
On October 7, 2024, Hamas opened a new round of violence with Israel, bringing Hezbollah into a new equation of challenges. Hezbollah escalated its northern front, firing precision rockets and marches into Israel in an effort to strengthen its position within the “axis of resistance” and fill the vacuum left by the weakness of the factions in Gaza.
But the Israeli response was unconventional. Systematic military operations hit Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the south, the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs, targeting weapons depots, command centers, and observation posts. The most severe impact was the absence of leadership after the announcement of the killing of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and a number of prominent leaders, which caused confusion in the organizational structure and lowered morale.
External pressure and internal paralysis, has Hezbollah collapsed?
The consequences were not limited to the military aspect. The tightened sanctions and financial measures that affected Hezbollah’s financiers and funding networks led to a suffocating financial drought. Hezbollah is no longer able to cover its human and logistical losses, nor can it pay the salaries of its members as before, accelerating the structural decline within its ranks.
The decline of popularity … this time from within
Lebanon’s already exhausted environment has made the party’s position even more precarious. In a country that is collapsing economically and institutionally, popular resentment has grown, not only from opponents, but also from the party’s traditional support base in the south and the Bekaa Valley, where voices have begun to rise, refusing to involve youth in uncalculated battles that will only further alienate a community that is already suffering from destitution and marginalization.
The party is no longer a sacred symbol for many of its supporters. The halo has dissipated, and people have begun to hold it largely responsible for destroying the chances of saving Lebanon and severing its ties with the Arab world and the international community.
Regional recession: Tehran on the defensive
What is happening is inseparable from major regional changes. Tehran, which used to manage its regional influence through multiple arms, is now facing a number of setbacks: From a declining presence in Yemen, to the loss of hegemony in Syria, and the erosion of loyalist factions in Gaza. With international pressure intensifying over the nuclear issue, Iran is no longer able to fund Hezbollah as before.
This decline in external support has left Hezbollah exposed on all levels. It has lost its safety net, its ability to take initiative has diminished, and it has retreated inward, where pressures are intense and options are almost non-existent.
Where is the party headed?
The big question of the day: What is Hezbollah’s future? The overall context suggests that Hezbollah is no longer an untouchable entity. The balance of power has shifted, its legitimacy has declined, and its structure has been exposed. For the first time, a non-state armed organization seems to be forced to recalculate or face disintegration.
Official Lebanon, in a state of total collapse, can no longer tolerate any parallel forces. The international community, which has long condoned Hezbollah’s weapons under the rubric of “resistance,” is no longer willing to do so. The Lebanese street, exhausted and hungry, is no longer interested in slogans that neither feed nor employ.
Has Hezbollah collapsed?
Hezbollah is facing more than a situational crisis. It is facing a real existential test. In a world where the balance of power is shifting and maps and alliances are being rewritten, there is no longer a place for armed entities outside the state. The challenge for the party is now: Either shift toward the logic of the state and legitimate political participation, or continue on the path of collapse, and the countdown has already begun.
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