Hezbollah Faces the Storm The Wounded Tiger Suffers a Crisis of Confidence, Breakthroughs and Losses Threaten its Future

Hezbollah Facing the Storm The Wounded Tiger suffers from a crisis of confidence, intelligence breaches, and losses that threaten its future

In a remarkable development that reveals the extent of the pressures on Hezbollah, the Israeli Alma Institute published

a think tank specializing in security and defense affairs.

An extensive report suggests that the party is facing one of its most complex phases since its founding.

The report, which caught the attention of Israeli and international media outlets.

put Hezbollah in the image of a wounded tiger, still capable of movement.

But internally, it is suffering from continuous bleeding that could lead to radical changes in its structure and performance.

Crisis of confidence within Hezbollah’s ranks The Wounded Tiger

One of the report’s most notable findings is a worsening crisis of trust within Hezbollah.

especially between the leadership levels and the field elements.

This crisis was exacerbated by the qualitative strikes that targeted prominent leaders in the party.

which led many elements to suspect internal intelligence infiltrations.

Party members, according to the report, feel that their organization is no longer as invulnerable as it once was.

and that Israel has been able to penetrate its security networks with precision.

These uncertainties negatively affect field coordination and operational decisions.

This can lead to further fragmentation and poor discipline in the field.

Massive losses in leadership and infrastructure

The report also touches on the heavy field losses suffered by Hezbollah.

According to the Alma Institute, more than 15% of Hezbollah’s strength was destroyed or disabled.

A large number of its field commanders, who were the backbone of its military and intelligence operations, have been eliminated.

Among the severely affected units:

• “Radwan” unit: It has lost its ability to carry out offensive infiltrations into the Galilee, a major blow to the depths of the party’s offensive doctrine.
• “Victory” and “Al-Aziz” units: They received precise and concentrated strikes that reduced their combat efficiency in southern Lebanon.

Destroying the underground infrastructure in southern Lebanon, which was used for smuggling, storage, and hiding.

is a qualitative development in the confrontation. However, some underground installations remain in areas north of the Litani and within the Bekaa Valley, indicating Hezbollah’s continued resilience in some areas.

Iranian intervention to rehabilitate the wounded tiger

Despite these losses, Iran, according to the report, remains committed to supporting Hezbollah financially and logistically. This support includes:

• Smuggling modern weapons across the Syrian border.
• Sending cash and gold to finance Hezbollah’s operations.
• Assistance in establishing self-production lines for weapons and ammunition.
• Providing intelligence support to counter Israeli penetration.

The report notes that this Iranian support is part of a broader strategy through which Tehran seeks to maintain its regional influence through its allies, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Domestic pressures in Lebanon

Domestically, Hezbollah faces increasing challenges on the Lebanese scene.

The report noted an escalating “political bullying” by Lebanese parties that have begun to publicly demand a reconsideration of Hezbollah’s weapons and military role outside the authority of the state.

The Lebanese army has recently become more active in some sensitive areas, in parallel with the rise of new political forces that seek to break Hezbollah’s monopoly on security decisions in the south and the Bekaa Valley.

As the economic situation in Lebanon deteriorates, Hezbollah finds itself in an awkward position in front of its constituency. Many of its constituents are complaining about the poor living conditions and questioning the usefulness of the party continuing to fight external or internal battles that do not serve the interests of the Lebanese citizen.

Israel: In a state of suspense and anticipation

According to the report, Israel’s military and political leadership views the current situation as a “historic opportunity” to further weaken Hezbollah.

It is estimated that there is a race against time between Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild itself and the continuation of military and intelligence operations aimed at crippling it.

Although Israel continues its cautious policy, it puts the option of expanding military operations on the table, especially if it detects clear indications of Hezbollah’s recovery or readiness to carry out offensive operations.

The future of Hezbollah: Is there a scenario for disintegration?

At the conclusion of the report, the Alma Institute emphasizes that Hezbollah’s disarmament is no longer just a dream, but a realistic possibility, provided there is political will on both the Lebanese and Israeli sides.

According to the report, Hezbollah’s ideological doctrine – based on the so-called “armed resistance” – remains firmly entrenched, which means that any shift in this direction requires strong external pressure, deep internal Lebanese understandings, and rebuilding trust between the political components.

Although Hezbollah appears to be in a state of relative weakness, it remains dangerous.

The report noted that, like a “wounded tiger,” Hezbollah may act unpredictably if it feels completely cornered, and may resort to internal or external escalation to change the balance of power.

The Alma report’s revelations suggest that Hezbollah is at a critical crossroads.

between remaining a dominant force in Lebanon or entering a downward trajectory that could see it lose much of its influence.

In light of all this, the most important question arises: Will Hezbollah be able to survive and reposition, or will local and regional changes force it to transform from a “wounded tiger” to an entity unable to regain its former strength?

But what is certain is that Hezbollah is not the same today as it was years ago, and that Lebanon, and with it the region, is on a date with major changes that may redraw the map of powers.

Lebanon Today

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