One last chance before total collapse?

One Last Chance Before Total Collapse

Amid the deep political and economic crisis gripping Lebanon, there are growing indications that the international community’s “last chance” is running out.

is seriously threatened by internal procrastination and wasting time on secondary issues that do not touch the core of the crisis.

US “conditional flexibility” policy: Conditional but not open-ended support

Since the beginning of the Lebanese collapse, the United States has adopted a flexible approach toward Beirut.

It combined political and diplomatic pressure with an understanding of some of Lebanon’s complexities.

especially with regard to Hezbollah’s weapons file, which is one of the most complex issues in Lebanon. Lebanon and most closely tied to regional and international balances.

However, according to EU legal advisor Dr. Mohieddine Al-Shahimi, this American “flexibility” is not absolute, but rather conditional on the behavior of the Lebanese state.

According to Al-Shuhaimi, Washington still treats Lebanon as a state that must regain its full sovereignty.

It must implement its constitution and abide by international resolutions, especially Resolution 1701, which explicitly stipulates that weapons must be restricted to the state.

The international community is ready … but with conditions

Al-Shuhaimi and a number of experts agree that the international community, including Arab and Gulf

is waiting for clear and real signals from within Lebanon.

It confirms the seriousness of the state in moving towards restoring sovereign decision-making and putting an end to the state of “permanent exception” that Lebanon has been living in for years under the pretext of “Lebanese specificity.”

Shuhaimi emphasizes that this particularity is no longer a sufficient excuse for not respecting sovereignty and applying the law.

He states: “The United States, along with the European Union, does not want Lebanon to plunge into chaos.

“But they will not continue forever to provide support without concrete steps, starting from within Lebanon itself.

Three milestones: Local, Arab and international

According to Shuhaimi, the path of international support for Lebanon goes through three interconnected phases:

1. Domestic phase: The Lebanese state must first demonstrate a strong political will to undertake radical reforms in the judiciary, administration, and institutions, including combating corruption and achieving transparency and accountability, specifically in the electricity and banking files, which are the most prominent manifestations of the state’s structural failure.
2. The Arab stage: Lebanon cannot receive international support without a clear Arab position on the side of the state, not chaos and uncontrolled weapons. Arab support, especially from the Gulf, remains a prerequisite for restoring confidence in Lebanon as a safe investment location.
3. The international stage: This is the final stage, and only occurs when the Lebanese government shows tangible signs of reform, opening the door for the IMF and donor countries to initiate support programs.

Between Sovereignty and Weapons: A Last Chance Before Total Collapse

It is no secret that the core of all these stages lies in the issue of illegal weapons, specifically Hezbollah’s weapons.

According to Shuhaimi’s analysis, this weapon, which has been used under slogans ranging from “resisting Israel” to “supporting the Syrian regime,”

has become the main obstacle to building a state of law and institutions.

“You can’t build a state where sovereignty is violated from within.

whether for external purposes or to protect the influence of one group at the expense of another.”

He continues: “This weapon has not strengthened the position of the Shiite community, as is being promoted.

Rather, it has contributed to marginalizing the inclusive national decision and hijacking the state towards axes that most Lebanese do not want.”

Judicial reform is the key to economic rescue

Regarding the financial rescue plan, Shuhaimi believes that any talk of external support cannot be separated from structural reform of the judiciary.

Trust in institutions is lacking, and a foreign or expatriate investor will not put his money in an environment where judicial security is absent.

He emphasizes: “We need clear reform laws, an independent judiciary, and new laws that encourage investment.

“We need clear reform laws, an independent judiciary, and new laws that encourage investment. He emphasizes that the economic crisis is not only financial.

It is a direct result of a lack of trust in the state.

Time is running out … and “political waste” is the biggest risk, one last chance before total collapse

In his conclusion, Shuhaimi warns that Lebanon is running out of time.

and that it is not only the Iranian veto or internal conflicts that threaten the flexible U.S. approach.

but also “wasting time on side issues” and a lack of decisive political decision-making.

“Lebanon is facing a rare opportunity that will not be repeated often. What is needed is immediate action to demonstrate seriousness to the international community.

and not wait for regional settlements that will not come easily.”

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