3 tracks in front of Israel in Gaza .. What are they?

The Israeli National Security Institute published a new study that talked about the options that Israel stands in front of its war in Gaza.

The study stated that “Israel has three possible strategic paths to achieve the goals of its war: the occupation of the Gaza Strip and the imposition of martial law; the blockade of the Gaza Strip and the weakening and deterrence of Hamas, to agree to discuss the Arab proposal to rebuild the Gaza Strip and its stability and establish an alternative government in it.”

He continued: “Among the three options, the diplomatic path – the discussion of the Arab proposal – is the only path that may enhance the targets of the war at a relatively low costs, but because the outlines were not listened to to lead to the removal of Hamas from any military capacity in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli government has not discussed it at all.”

The occupation of the Gaza Strip and the establishment of a military government

According to the institute, “the advantage of military rule in the Gaza Strip is the ability to use it to achieve the goals of the war in the context of Hamas,” he added: “On the other hand, the replacement of the Hamas government will take place by Israel, and the Israeli army will distribute the entire humanitarian aid, thus preventing Hamas from selling it and using its distribution to civil control. The long presence in the field would increase the capabilities of collecting intelligence information, which would increase erosion Hamas capabilities help in achieving operational achievements against it. On the other hand, the military government will lack legitimacy between the residents of the Gaza Strip and the international scene, as well as its economic cost will be high and will have many consequences for the Israeli economy.

According to this approach, the institute says that Israel will impose a partial blockade on the Hamas -controlled Gaza Strip, and added: “It will not be possible to rebuild the sector and trade, and Israel will work to deepen the gap between the population and Hamas. This idea, which was not possible during the Biden administration, seems more possible during the Trump administration. It seems that the current president of the United States does not find any problem in supporting Israel, even at the time. In which restrictions are imposed on the entry of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. The long -term achievement that Israel will seek to achieve through the siege is Hamas’s abandonment of control of the sector due to the difficult circumstances it lives, and its preference is to transfer the reconstruction of the region to another.

He continued: “But there is a serious strategic problem inherent in the siege option, which is that Hamas will look at it and present it as a victory and evidence of its success in facing the challenge of the war with Israel, and causing it to be expelled from the Gaza Strip, and that it is now dealing with the siege – and it is not new to it. In the conditions of the siege, it is expected that Hamas will be able to control the aid that arrives in the sector, as much as it enters, and it will find it difficult to impose aid to the access of aid The inhabitants of the region. A dilemma will be established here between the starvation of the population, which would expose Israel to the risk of war crimes, and the remaining of Hamas in the sector is weak, but it is above the threshold of survival.

He said: “The consequences of the campaign against Israel on the international scene may harm the Israeli economy, although pressure in this case will be less than expected if Israel occupies the sector and imposes military rule over it, as Israel has been subjected to criticism for several years on the basis that it imposes a siege on the Gaza Strip.”

He continued: “The main problem inherent in the event of the siege is the military defeat. First, the State of Israel failed to achieve the goals of the war as it defined it. The hostages have not been released and Hamas remained in place. The strategic importance of this situation exceeded the repercussions related to the Gaza Strip alone. Zellinski at the White House). ”

And he added: “As for the enthusiasm of the enthusiasm and the possibility of overthrowing its regime from the inside, there are preliminary indications of popular unrest against the organization demanding the end of the war and the removal of its leaders from the region. It is still very early to assess the volume of protest, whether it will increase and expand, and whether the organization’s leaders will have already forced to leave the sector to escape the anger of the masses. At the same time, Hamas has already expressed its willingness to stop the demonstrations against them using the demonstrations using it. The blatant violence. Therefore, the doubt about the success of the protest is justified in light of the previous experiences, especially at the present time, where a state of madness prevails between the leadership of the organization, and for a good reason, and we must also take into account that the popular resistance will be met with an iron fist and is suppressed.

An alternative civil rule while keeping enthusiasm underground

The institute stated that “the great advantage inherent in this alternative is the economic advantage.” He said: “In the event of a technocratic government – an alternative civil government – Hamas will not distribute humanitarian aid, and therefore it will not become the strongest economically. And slowly, its civil condition will also be eroded. Hamas members are also throwing alternative civilian government representatives on top of the roofs, as they did with members of the Palestinian Authority in 2007. Hamas will continue to grow, and with it the threat it poses.

He continued: “These defects were already known since the beginning of the war, when it was decided that the formation of an alternative government in the Gaza Strip was the required model. Likewise, the solution that they formulated was to keep the responsibility of security in the hands of Israel, and to continue to undermine the capabilities of Hamas through a series of operations over many months, until it was fully weakened. The second solution that was considered was to build local forces in Gaza to impose law and order. The plan was to train about 5,000 qualified people in Jordan, In the context of American training, and returning them to the Gaza Strip as police officers, their salaries are paid by a party other than Hamas.

He added: “Although this model was the choice of the Israeli government at the beginning of the war, it was not implemented because there was no discussion on the alternative civil authority Hamas. Therefore, the Egyptian proposal and the Emirati proposal to rebuild the Gaza Strip and its stability, with Hamas not participating in the government, are the closest to Israeli interests today. But Israel rejected both proposals. Responsible for the reconstruction of the sector and the supervision of its civil council. A civilian population does not belong to the Palestinian Authority or Hamas. (Tags)