Clear American messages and freezing the military escalation paper!

The deputy of the American envoy Morgan Ortigos is visiting Lebanon that raised a lot of controversy before it happened, as an atmosphere of tension and fears prevailed in the days before its coming, with the escalation of the promotion of the idea that Washington may carry severe messages or direct threats related to the return of military escalation in the south. However, the course of the meetings and what they leaked, showed that the visit was not as bad as the marketing, but rather, it seemed an indication of the continued American dealing with Lebanon within a clear diplomatic ceiling, away from the warning language or imposing incapable conditions.

The sources indicate that Washington has not changed its basic demands, neither in terms of controlling the borders, nor in terms of commitment to the application of international decisions, but the tone in which these demands were conveyed does not suggest that there is an American tendency to expand the circle of the Israeli war. This in itself is a development that is registered in the interest of calm, and reflects Washington’s more realistic reading of the nature of the Lebanese reality.

The regional reality also has witnessed important transformations in the past days, which made the scenario of a comprehensive escalation a less likely option. The first of these transformations is what reveals leaks from American sources about the failure of American strikes in Yemen, despite Washington’s use of advanced technologies such as ghost fighters and strategic launchers. This failure carries indirect indications for US decision makers, that any broad military action against Iran may face similar challenges in terms of the ability to achieve full goals. As for the second and most indicative development, it is the informal announcement of the American-Iranian consensus on the launch of a new path of indirect negotiations, which indicates the beginning of a mutual political openness that inherently imposes a kind of phased calm in other conflict files.

These developments, in addition to other factors related to the absence of the Israeli interest in expanding the scope of the confrontation currently, whether due to the internal front or the limited field results, are all factors that contributed to the freezing of the military escalation paper on the Lebanese scene at least in the current stage. Therefore, the visit of the American pollution was not a risk of a risk, but rather part of a quieter context imposed by the balance of power and the limited options available to all parties.