Is the war coming or just an American intimidation?

It is clear that the United States is increasingly pressure on Lebanon, politically and economically, with the aim of imposing its conditions and changing internal balances. However, this pressure does not necessarily mean that Washington is heading towards the scenario of war or comprehensive chaos, as reading American interests in Lebanon shows that the American administration is still dealing with this country as a strategic platform, and not as a fully hostile square that requires destruction or isolation.

First, Washington has a network of allies in the Lebanese interior, from political forces and influential figures, and it does not want to lose this influence by destroying the environment in which these parties move. Any widespread war or a comprehensive collapse will weaken these allies or even their disappearance from the equation, and this is not in the American interest. Maintaining the existing balance, albeit brittle, is more useful than igniting the Lebanese front.

Second, the American view of Lebanon is different from its view of other arenas such as Gaza or even Syria. While these areas are classified as a permanent rivalry or confrontation areas, Lebanon is considered an important sphere of influence in which American security and political interests intersect. This was what it was in the past, and this trend has increased recently, making the comprehensive escalation a less priority option.

Third, one of the clear indicators on the importance of Lebanon for Washington is to work to open the largest American embassy in the Middle East on Lebanese soil. This huge project can only be explained as evidence that the United States wants to stay and invest in Lebanon in the long run, and therefore it does not seek to turn it into a failed or mired state in chaos.

Fourth, any future war will not be like its predecessors, but will be open without roofs or fixed equations. This makes the option of war fraught with everyone, including Washington. It is true that Hezbollah may be exposed to major losses, but in return it may succeed in the heart of the table and confuse all players. In such a scenario, there will be no victorious, but everyone will be at the location of the loser. Therefore, Washington is likely to continue political and economic pressures, but it will avoid pushing matters towards the complete explosion, in order to ensure its interests and allies inside Lebanon.