War indicators rise … These are conditions for avoiding them

Alan Sarkis Call of the homeland

Lebanon lives an obsession, renewed the war at any moment, as mobile raids between the south, the Bekaa and the suburb constitute evidence of its failure.

While diplomatic communications are active to prevent the expansion of confrontations, the visit of the American envoy to the Middle East, Morgan Ortigos, has the atmosphere, carrying important messages with it with regard to the border situation.

Lebanon cannot behave according to the balances of forces that Hezbollah is trying to promote. The imbalance and the Israeli military superiority appear on the ground, and the party is trying to suggest that the state does not respond to Israeli violations and may act in a timely manner.

Negative indicators

All political, diplomatic and military data indicate the possibility of renewed war at any moment. Informed sources confirm to the “Call of the homeland” that the major countries are aware of the position of Israel, and the latter is in the position of the strong in the region after the defeat of “Hamas” in Gaza and “Hezbollah” in Lebanon and the American strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, and thus want to remove any danger from its borders and are ready to do anything to reach its goal.

So, the possibilities of renewed war are increased according to Western diplomats, and the most important factors increase: the most prominent factors:

First: The Israeli army took a rest, and re -fed its stores with the required ammunition. As Washington handed over new arms shipments, the Israeli army became able to resume any war.

Second: President Donald Trump arrived at the White House, and gave him the green light to Israel to strike any goal that threatens its security, while the administration of President Joe Biden was exerting pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop the war.

Third: The resumption of the war in the Gaza Strip, and this matter raises the possibility of its return to Lebanon.

Fourth: Hezbollah is not handing over its weapon, and trying to rebuild its capabilities.

Fifth: The fall of the Syrian regime, which was a supply line for Hezbollah, and the difficulty that Iran faces in communicating weapons and support to the “party”, which makes decisiveness this time easier.

Sixth: The high level of pressure on Iran, and this matter may push it to restore the fighting with the remainder of Hezbollah in order to reduce pressure from it.

Targeting

There are military indicators indicating the possibility of the war. When the armistice agreement was signed, the Israeli army continued to activate a cliff and destruction in the villages of southern Litani during the sixty -day period that was renewed, and bombed several sites in the north of Litani, but his work was focused in the south of the river. The Israeli army has started a series of targets of the southern suburb without deterrence and its implementation of assassinations, as if time returned to the “attribution” war, and any slide will re -ignite the war.

On the second military side, some information indicates that “Hezbollah”, which received painful strikes and was the most severe assassination of its Secretary -General, Hassan Nasrallah, re -filled the majority of the vacant centers after the assassination of its leaders. Tel Aviv has gathered information about the new “party” cadres and began targeting them, and this will expand the possibility of war.

There is pressure inside “Hezbollah” and from armed groups that are not satisfied with targeting, calling for the leadership of the “party” to issue orders to respond, and this will ignite the confrontations if it happens.

communication

Communications are active with the United States of America and France to process gaps. And if the major countries do not want to renew the war, they cannot control Israel and prevent it from responding.

According to familiarity with the atmosphere of communications with Washington, which was carried out by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, the American position is clear in this context, as Washington considers that Lebanese officials are demanding the stopping of Israeli raids and the withdrawal of points occupied by Israel and this is a right requirement, but there are duties in return.

Washington divides the file into two parts:

The first section is to withdraw Israel from points inside Lebanese territory, to be associated with the demarcation of the land borders and the formation of committees, and this issue is followed according to a well -known and specific path, and Ortagus seeks to start immediately upon its return to Lebanon.

The second section is the contact of Lebanese officials to American to treat the raids launched by Israel in the regions, the last of which is the suburb. Washington assures officials that the ceasefire agreement signed on November 27, 2024 stipulates that Israel allows movement when it feels danger or there is a threat to its security, and this item was signed by the Lebanese government, and therefore Israel cannot be prevented from making any military move.

Washington holds part of the responsibility to the Lebanese state. The official Lebanon demands Tel Aviv to put an end to its attacks, while until the hour of Resolution 1701 and the militias did not strip its weapons, and thus the Lebanese land keeps a permissible square for Hezbollah’s movements, and the Lebanese state is still dealing with the “party” as if nothing happened and there is no clear agreement in this regard.

Despite the American blame on the Lebanese state, and its accusation of not fulfilling its obligations, the United States of America succeeded in continuing to neutralize the capital, Beirut, state facilities and civilians in all of Lebanon. Washington insists that Israel will not do any hostile action towards the institutions of the Lebanese state.

The Lebanese state has become certain that Israel’s threats are serious, and it tries to intensify its activities and measures to stop the firing of the missiles and not endanger Lebanon and prevent the renewal of war at any moment. The investigations are expected to reach a convincing result. If Hezbollah was the one who fired the missiles, this is a calamity, and the largest calamity, according to the followers, is to launch these missiles on the other hand, and this means that the country suffers from chaos, and every gang is capable of acquiring missiles and dragging Lebanon into a devastating war.

The political directives of the agencies were given to raise the level of militancy in the South Litani region and make it an area free of illegal weapons, and the rapid work to implement Resolution 1701, and the official Lebanon is awaiting the visit of Ortagus, which, and if it was informed of the unwillingness to set a timetable to withdraw the weapon and refuse to form committees to negotiate, then it may actually open the doors of war and hell to Lebanon, because its authority has preferred desires “Hezbollah” on the wishes of the Lebanese people to live in safety and stability.