Lebanon 2028 … this is how it will be

Danny Haddad MTV

The visitor of the Republican Palace, before the American delegate, Morgan Ortigos, reaches him with more than the impression. Joseph Aoun has not changed between the army leadership and the presidency of the Republic. As if he did not remove the military uniform. She wears it, not wearing it. He says “Anna” when he talks about the army. “Users” justifies smile. A loving face, direct and good words. Beautiful qualities, but they are certainly not enough to make a better homeland.

Hope takes the same space as anxiety in President Aoun’s words. He trusts that the following will be better, especially in the promising summer with the return of expatriates and categories of tourists. But, at the same time, he is afraid of a security deterioration if he is thrown into Lebanon in a confrontation that is greater than its ability.
It is not far from the words of the master of the palace, a prominent parliamentary source confirms that the next stage will inevitably witness a security being because Israel, supported by the United States of America, will not be satisfied with less than the removal of the entire Hezbollah weapon, north and south of the Litani.
And not far from the words of the interior, a diplomatic source indicates that the next few weeks will be decisive in two lines with which Lebanon is linked: the first, the possibility of a series of successive Israeli strikes that restore the scene of September and the last of the past, even for days, and will include assassinations for Hezbollah officials and hitting its warehouses north of Litani, to end these operations with what can be called the entire arsenal. Hezbollah. ”
The second is to strike a strong blow to Iran, especially since the Trump administration wants much more than what Tehran seems ready to present, and the first Ghaith of Iranian informal words of abandoning the Houthis’ support, followed by a night telephone conversation made by Iranian President Poli Crown Prince.
The diplomatic source notes that these two steps are faced with diplomatic efforts, especially French, to prevent their obtaining and replace them with a lament to achieve the results desired by negotiation, not by force.
However, the war, limited time, appears as the Iranian blow to Iran, as an inevitable fate, as they constitute a mandatory corridor to move in Lebanon and the region to a new stage in which Hezbollah does not exist, but rather we are witnessing the start of the state building process in conjunction with the formation of a framework for negotiation between Lebanon and Israel on the one hand, under US auspices, and between Lebanon and Syria on the other hand, under Saudi auspices.

This scenario may need for nearly two years, to reach, at the end of Donald Trump in the year 208, a stage of stability and the beginning of prosperity in the region is certain that Lebanon will be better, although it is not able to restore the entire “economic fitness”.
However, those who are rushed on Joseph Aoun, a little bit.