Tel Aviv is moving quickly on several axes, most notably the pressure on Washington to push it to intervene more effectively in the Lebanese file, with the aim of imposing settlements in line with Israeli interests. In this context, the data indicate that Lebanon may be granted a limited period of time to start the party’s disarmament, which is associated with increasing internal and external political pressure, which was evident in the suspension of the ceasefire monitoring committee, which reflects a change in diplomatic dynamics related to the Lebanese file.
These pressures may take multiple forms, including intensifying international political interventions in the Lebanese affairs, and trying to impose new understandings through diplomatic channels, supported by internal moves from parties that see in these developments an opportunity to reshape the political scene in a manner that commensurate with Western and regional trends. On the other hand, the “party” and its allies are aware of the nature of these pressures, and are working to delay the implementation of any measures that may be imposed on them, benefiting from the Lebanese political complications and sensitive balances that govern the internal reality.
At the same time, it is not excluded that Israel will resort to a deliberate military escalation, which is to intensify assassinations and targeting inside Lebanon, whether against leadership figures or sensitive sites. This scenario is not new, but it may take a more violent character in the next stage, especially if Israel sees that the political and diplomatic path does not achieve the desired results with the required speed.
It remains that the scene is open to several possibilities, as any Israeli escalation may be met with reactions from the “party”, which means that the risk of slipping to a broader confrontation remains. In light of this tense atmosphere, Lebanon remains in the circle of danger, hostage to changing regional and international equations, which may make the coming weeks a articulated stage that determines the course of developments in the coming period.
