Washington and Tehran … a military confrontation or the option to negotiate?

The Israeli media has indicated that the threats of US President Donald Trump, in addition to the intensive training of the Israeli army, indicates a major and imminent attack on Iran, and that the potential blow will be the most violent against a sovereign state since World War II, and may cause a severe blow to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the military arm of the regime, which may open the door to extensive internal changes that may reach the regime’s change in Tehran.

President Trump had earlier threatened to bomb Iran if he did not respond to showing him with talks within a period of two months. In response, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned that Iran would strike a severe blow to the United States if Trump’s threats are carried out.

So the political and military situation is complicated and depends on a set of factors, including the current positions of the Trump administration, the internal opposition in Washington for any blow against Iran, relations with other powers, and the nature of the Iranian response.

Military sources indicate that channel 14 threats reflect the Israeli concern of Iran as a regional power and there will be consultations between Tel Aviv and Washington on military strategies, and this type of statements may be used as a way to escalate international anxiety over the Iranian nuclear program, with the sources indicating that Washington will not venture with any large military attack that may negatively affect global economic markets and will leave repercussions at the regional and international levels.

Will Iran accept American conditions?

Political sources familiar with American airspace talk about the effects of economic sanctions imposed on Iran, which led to the deterioration of the economic and living situation of citizens, and this matter would push them to consider presenting some concessions to reduce sanctions or improve the economic situation, especially since these conditions may contribute to popular pressure on the government to search for solutions, including negotiation with the United States, especially since demonstrations and protests It starts from time to time in the streets of Iran due to the economic and living conditions, as an agreement to negotiate with the United States can constitute a strategic step to gain the support of sectors of Iranian society, which helps the government to avoid internal division, the opposition may take advantage of any failure in dialogue or diplomatic moves to show the government’s weakness, which may pressure the system, and beyond that, the current regional and international conditions have differed from the previous, especially yet October 7, 2023, the countries of the region want stability, and the major countries are preoccupied with their crises and problems, for example, they want to solve the Ukrainian crisis in cooperation with Trump, while China is in an economic confrontation with the United States. Therefore, the sources familiar with the American airspace see that the approach towards negotiating with the United States is a single option to maintain the stability of the regime, as the Iranian government realizes the challenges it faces, with reference in this context, that changing the regime in Iran is a weak possibility unless there is a strong internal move or broad international support.
There is no doubt that the analysis of the Iranian position under the current circumstances indicates aspects related to internal and external pressures, and the desire of the Iranian government to avoid the military conflict, and go towards dialogue with the United States. Negotiations may be a way to avoid conflict and preserve Iran’s interests, and therefore the Iranian Republic, according to Iranian sources, will be accurately weighing its position before taking any decision on accepting American conditions based on a comprehensive assessment of the risks and interests Popular, economic and political, knowing that there are powers within the Iranian political class that support negotiation, and sees this as a way to improve the economic and social situation and it is possible that there will be a state of internal division on how to deal with the United States, especially since Trump wants Iran to negotiate again on its nuclear program after he toppled the agreement of former President Barack Obama and withdrew from it in 2018, so the success or failure of the negotiations may affect The future of Iranian foreign policy, as it may enhance or weaken the government’s position internally and externally.

Waiting for the coming days, many questions arise and the next of the days will be answered and the most prominent, what if Iran does not negotiate? What are the alternatives before them, especially since the balance of power has changed after the many changes that occurred in Lebanon after the Israeli war on Hezbollah, and in Syria after the fall of the former Syrian regime? How will Israel’s reaction be if it does not get American support to launch a war against Iran?