Details of the post -Nasrallah stage .. These are the challenges of Hezbollah!

The Israeli assassination of the former Secretary -General of Hezbollah, the martyr Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, on September 27, 2024 is one of the most sensitive security operations in the history of the conflict between the party and Tel Aviv.

On February 23, Nasrallah was made in a huge funeral procession with a massive popular participation and from some Arab, Islamic and foreign countries, while the current Secretary -General Naim Qasim drew a road map for the party in the next stage.

Among these two phases, Hezbollah lost – according to experts – the equation of deterrence and the balance of terror that Israel has long been derived from, which was established after a series of bloody wars and confrontations, where the party was in a site that allowed it to maneuver a military personnel relying on the expertise he accumulated in previous wars, and what he accomplished in redefining the rules of engagement, which appeared in its operations that targeted Israeli military sites during the last war.

After the assassination and funeral, the party found itself in a moment of restoration of its strategic position with the loss of its leadership, and internal and external challenges, most notably the relationship management with Iran, and the reformulation of the military and political role of the party internally, appeared in light of the increasing international pressure to withdraw from the south of the Litani River, according to the text of the agreement, which means stopping any military operations against Israel.

On the other hand, Israel continued to violate the agreement constantly; Through the assassinations and the implementation of raids, and the message was the strongest during the funeral of Nasrallah itself, as the Israeli warplanes shaved a low altitude over the funeral site in the Sports City in the capital, Beirut.

The university professor and political activist Ali Murad believes that the funeral of the Secretary -General of Hezbollah constitutes the end of another stage and start in the party’s march, and confirms that “its repercussions are not limited to the assassination of Nasrallah in itself, but rather comes within the context of objective losses before the Israeli enemy, and the signing of a ceasefire agreement was not in the interest of Hezbollah or Lebanon, and that the party has severe damage at the level of its military and missile structure Integrated, ”as he put it.

Murad explains to Al -Jazeera Net that regional developments, such as the fall of the Assad regime and the signing of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, represents major transformations that directly affect Hezbollah and the Shiite sect in Lebanon, as it reflects Naim Qassem’s speech implicit acceptance of the state’s authority, but it appears to be in response to more external military pressure than as a result of internal understandings.

In this context, the university professor refers to the party’s keenness to consolidate its political legitimacy, investing the funeral ceremony to highlight its weight within the Shiite scene, and to deal with the local and international parties from the position of power, and in a clear position, that “despite the challenges, the party still has a strong presence, and is striving to preserve its role in the political scene,” he said.

Murad explains that Hezbollah succeeded in the crowd and a remarkable scenery industry during the funeral, but he faced challenges, most notably the absence of real political representation at the level of the Lebanese state, and the absence of some allies political forces, and that the flight of Israeli aircraft over the funeral procession carried a clear message in this context.

As for the political options presented to Hezbollah in the next stage, Murad believes that it carries challenges and opportunities at the same time, “the absence of the allies – although it constitutes a weak factor at the national level – may give the party an opportunity to exploit the state of isolation to enhance cohesion within the Shiite community, but the challenges remain a special exist in light of the scarcity of financial resources and the difficulty of securing financing without making fundamental reforms.”

Despite these challenges, Murad confirms that the party continues to alliance with the Amal movement, which is a fundamental matter that serves the interests of both parties, as it seeks to highlight the Shiite community as a unified bloc, which helps it to impose an internal and external balance, indicating that Qasim’s speech reflects the beginning of a different stage, whether in form or content, from the one led by Nasrallah, which confirms that the party is facing a new political turn.

Road map

On the other hand, political analyst Tawfiq Shoman believes that the Hezbollah road map at this stage has become clear, whether in its headlines or details, and among the most prominent of these titles is commitment to the Lebanese state and work within its framework, while adhering to the Taif constitution as a basis for political practice.

Shoman, in his interview with Al -Jazeera Net, indicates that this principle – that is, commitment to the framework of the state – may have been dealt with by Hezbollah Secretary -General Naim Qassem in the speech of the funeral, as well as the head of the Al -Wafa Resistance Bloc, Mohamed Raad, in his speech during the parliamentary trust session.

The political analyst adds that the road map includes confirming the need for the Lebanese state to play its full role in various fields, starting with the protection of Lebanon, to achieving balanced development and preserving civil peace, as it also includes opening the door of national dialogue to discuss the challenges facing Lebanon, most notably the reconstruction and economic and political reforms.

Political analyst Ibrahim Haider believes that the funeral of Nasrallah carried great indications related to the party’s position and its role in the next stage.

In his speech to Al -Jazeera Net, Haider adds that there is a change in the speech after the funeral, as the policy that Hezbollah will follow at home and abroad will be based on the review of the popular power represented by the party, and this force will be its weapon in its upcoming confrontations, and it is an equation that the party seeks to devote to in all political stations and benefits.

According to Haider’s opinion, it seems that the party is seeking to secure money for its partisan support and its nearby environment, while trying to invest the excess force that was achieved after the funeral.

Although the party’s ability to control the political decision in the country has become limited, especially after the end of the vacuum in the presidency of the Republic and the formation of a new government, the party will continue to seek to strengthen its role, according to the analyst, although the current government announced in its ministerial statement that the state is responsible for the exclusive weapon.

Haider believes that the party will stress more in its position in parallel with the rebuilding of itself, despite its willingness to dialogue and participate in the reconstruction, it will continue to use everything that is available to continue its options, armed with its popularity that appeared in the funeral.