American pressure strategy and Hezbollah depletion

In a charged political atmosphere, former US President Donald Trump, Morgan Ortigos, arrived in Beirut, carrying a clear message showing the American vision that Lebanon is in front of a crossroads, and the choice must be decided about the nature of the influence of this country.

The visit, which comes within a tight American strategy, aims to enhance international pressure to isolate Hezbollah from the executive authority, taking advantage of its internal popularity (at the national level) and the escalation of economic crises on which it is blamed, and its new military weakness.

Informed sources indicate that Washington is working to employ Hezbollah’s legitimacy collapse after years of control, through its alliance with local forces opposing the party. The American move depends on a semi -clear plan that is first based on isolating the party politically by preventing the participation of the Shiite duo (Hezbollah and Amal Movement) in the next government, and secondly, the party holds the responsibility of all political and economic crises in Lebanon, especially with its failure and its allies in implementing internationally required reforms.
Washington is also seeking to turn the Lebanese street against the party by supporting the movements that demands it to withdraw from power.

But the question: Will Washington succeed in implementing the exclusion scenario?
The party has two options, both of which are risky:
As for deciding not to participate in the new government, but without being initiated by that, he is waiting for his opponents – American support – to exclude him, allowing him to turn himself into an opposition force that criticizes the government’s failure to achieve stability and development, and to use electricity and fuel crises as evidence of The Western coalition was unable to manage the state.
However, this option means that the party waived its political gains since the Taif Agreement, which may weaken its influence for a long time.
Here the second option is highlighted, which is the party not leaving the authority easily, and it may resort to: disrupting the formation of the government through non -negotiable conditions, such as keeping ministries or a specific number and delaying reaching solutions, in addition to moving the Shiite street through huge demonstrations, especially with the approaching funeral date Secretary -General Hassan Nasrallah, who will – if it happens – will be transformed into a million -bodied demonstration of the party’s organizational and popular power, and this is what he needs in the internal political battle.