How will Joseph Aoun affect the situation in Lebanon? An Israeli report speaks
The Israeli newspaper Jerusalem Post published a new report talking about what Lebanese President Joseph Aoun could do regarding Lebanon.
The report he translated says: Lebanon24 The election of Aoun as president of Lebanon, last Thursday, ended a two-year power vacuum, and Western and regional powers have expressed cautious optimism about Lebanon’s future, hoping that these elections will represent a step towards stability. He added: But will the new Lebanese president be able to confront Hezbollah? And maintaining the ceasefire agreement with Israel?
He added: Many realize that Lebanon has been mired in political and economic turmoil for years, but few people fully understand why the country is often described as a failed state. The presidency has been vacant for more than two years after Parliament failed to elect a president in 12 attempts due to deep political divisions. Also, Hezbollah and its allies obstructed the process of choosing a new president for the country, as they did not obtain enough parliamentary votes to install one of their candidates.
The report explained that Joseph Aoun has a good reputation through successful counter-terrorism operations during his term, and added: Also, his election received support from the main political parties and international support from the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia.
He continued: Shortly after taking office, Aoun pledged to guarantee the state’s right to monopolize weapons and invest in the army to monitor the borders and maintain its security in the south. For those who read between the lines, this clearly indicates Hezbollah’s disarmament. However, the question remains: Will it be able to take the bold steps required to fulfill this pledge?
The report considered that Aoun’s election was largely a result of the Israeli war on Lebanon, due to which Hezbollah was weakened, and added: Israel’s operations have reduced the party’s influence to the extent that it has weakened its grip on Lebanese politics. Also, this matter, along with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, cut off Iran’s broader influence in the Levant and disrupted its land bridge to Lebanon. These transformations allowed the Lebanese parliament to finally elect a president without fear of Hezbollah’s veto power.
He continued: On the other hand, it may be too early to celebrate, as some experts question Aoun’s pledge to disarm Hezbollah, and claim that his election was not possible except after the support of Hezbollah’s representatives in the Lebanese parliament, with the approval of Iran.
In this context, David Daoud, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says that Hezbollah will not vote for someone it knows is capable of disarming it.
In addition, the Center for Strategic and International Studies indicated that Aoun’s presidency may provide short-term benefits to Hezbollah, such as facilitating the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and securing international financing for reconstruction in areas where Hezbollah’s support base is concentrated. But in the long term, expanding the Lebanese Army’s presence in areas previously under Hezbollah’s control could significantly weaken the party’s ability to restore its military strength.
However, the report says that the new Lebanese president faces enormous challenges, and Aoun’s presidency may constitute a turning point for Lebanon, explaining that his election reflects a shift in the political dynamics that have long empowered Hezbollah, but the tasks of disarming the party and reestablishing state sovereignty are extremely daunting.
He concluded: Aoun must deal with the deep-rooted sectarian divisions in Lebanon, restore international confidence, and strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces. Although there is room for cautious optimism, the path forward requires steadfastness and unwavering resolve.
Source:
Translation of Lebanon 24
