Trump opens the door to economic deals with Moscow .. What is the story?

Washington is moving with accelerating steps on the scope of international relations, putting Moscow again at the heart of its strategic accounts, not this time through the language of sanctions, but rather by opening the door to possible economic deals, which may reshape the features of the geopolitical scene.

The recent statements issued by the White House, backed by signs of President Donald Trump, reflect a remarkable shift in the way to deal with the Ukrainian crisis, as the talk about “peace across the economy” has become more than just field confrontations, and includes economic deals for Washington with Kiev (especially with regard to the American control agreement on a percentage of rare Ukraine minerals) and with Russia.

It is noteworthy that this shift coincides with the US endeavors to feel the Kremlin’s pulse regarding bilateral understandings, while the hints increase to the possibility of eliminating the sanctions imposed on Russia, if they are flexible to end the war in Ukraine.

While the US President highlights his role as a mediator between Moscow and Kiev, the economic side appears to be an integral part of the course of the political solution, which was reflected in the successive statements of US officials about the chances of trade cooperation in the future.

Amid these variables, attention is directed to how these understandings will be reflected on the ground, especially with regard to the return of American companies to the Russian market, and the recovery of trade exchange that has decreased by sanctions.

However, there are fundamental questions that remain stuck about the extent of current investors’ willingness to abandon assets they have acquired at the height of the crisis, and how Moscow will balance these potential economic openness and its political obligations.

“Economic deals”

Amid what a report described by the British newspaper “Financial Times” as “the sharp shift” in Washington’s policy towards Moscow, the US President, on Monday, and during his meeting with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, expressed his country’s willingness to conclude a “economic” deal with Russia, and said: The two countries had “very good talks” on ending the war in Ukraine.

According to Trump, “a lot of progress (in talks with Russia” has been achieved, adding: “We have made some very good talks with Moscow … and as we do with Ukraine, we can achieve some economic development regarding Russia and get the things we want.”

In addition, Bloomberg News quoted US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent as saying last Thursday that Russia may obtain some exemption from US sanctions based on its readiness to negotiate to end its war in Ukraine.

In response to a question about whether the United States is ready to increase or reduce sanctions on Russia, depending on how the talks took place to end the Ukraine war, Bessent said: “This will be a very good description.”

Earlier this month, the American President surprised European capitals when he pushed a quick peace agreement through bilateral talks with Moscow.

At a press conference after their meeting, Macron said that Trump has a “good reason” to re -communicate with Putin on the conflict, adding that the Europeans “are well aware” that they need to make more efforts to enhance European security. But he also repeatedly called for the American security guarantees to be part of any peace agreement.

Economic normalization

For his part, a professor at the Moscow Upper Economy College, Dr. Rami Qalioubi, says to the Sky News Arabia website:

A kind of “economic normalization” may occur between Russia and the United States, but that will not be quickly; Because the procedures for lifting the penalties are not immediate.
The United States is a state of institutions, and Trump cannot lift sanctions on Russia as soon as an individual decision.
As for the return of American companies to the Russian market, this is theoretically possible, but in practice, most of these companies are either nationalized or sold to Russian investors at low prices.
Therefore, Qalioubi does not expect the current investors to overcome these assets at the same prices, especially since the sale took place at a time when the prices of assets in Russia were low due to the peak of the war. Now, the situation is more stable, and as is well known, geopolitical stability usually leads to a high value of assets.

The return of American companies

On February 23, the American network “CNBC” quoted Steve Whitchov, the US President’s special envoy, as saying that “American companies are expected to carry out commercial business in Russia in the event of a peace agreement in the war between Russia and Ukraine.”

This comes at a time when Trump is seeking to reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine and made separate calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Voludimir Zellinski this month.

“It is clear that there are expectations that if we reach a peace agreement, American companies will be able to return there and do business there … and I think everyone will believe this will be positive and good.”

Doubts about the return of companies

A report by the New York Times highlighted the escalation of doubts about the return of American companies to Russia, despite the withdrawal of more than 1,000 companies since the war began in Ukraine. Analysts were quoted as their assurances that the current Russian economic environment – represented in high interest rates, with a lack of employment, and the contraction of the middle class – makes the return a great risk. The investment climate is also unstable, which opens the door to arbitrary decisions of the Kremlin, such as imposing new taxes and fees, restricting the restoration of profits, or even confiscating foreign companies.

The report links the current situation to a complex political reality, as the return of American companies also depends on any possible changes in American policy towards Russia, whether at the present time or after the upcoming elections.

Trade size

For his part, the head of the International Trade Development Agency, Timur Dowidar, indicates in exclusive statements to the “Sky News Arabia Economy” website that the volume of trade exchange between the United States and Russia is about 3 billion dollars, compared, the volume of trade exchange in 2021 was about 34 billion dollars, which indicates a significant decrease as a result of the sanctions imposed since then .. This decrease included the loss of many goods such as wood, stones and minerals.

Dowidar believes that if a consensus is reached between the American and Russian administrations, and the lifting of sanctions, including the banking and logistical blockade, this will open broad horizons for American companies to enter the Russian market and the Eurasian Union markets.

For example, US manufacturers in the United States can replace European cars after European companies withdraw from the Russian market.

The Russian analyst believes that it is possible to revive trade between the two countries to reach tens of billions of dollars, and perhaps more, based on the agreements related to not only Ukraine, but also to other geopolitical issues related to the global economy.

In addition, Dowidar indicates the possibility of the United States’s impact on reducing what he described as “European coalition’s aggression” in supporting any moves against Russia. (Sky News)