Will the war end soon?

The battles continue in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip in light of the Israeli threat to begin the attack on Rafah, which opens the door to many, many possibilities, including going to a long but limited war, or expanding the current battles to become more comprehensive and widespread, including also a complete ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon. In conjunction with the negotiations taking place between the Hamas movement on the one hand and Israel on the other hand, which are taking serious and major steps towards positive results.

According to the current proposals, Hamas obtained a large part of its political demands, specifically the complete Israeli military withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the dismantling of the presence in the center of the Strip in particular, in addition to the unconditional return of the residents of northern Gaza. This means that Hamas will emerge with a big prize called the exchange process after the ceasefire. This makes it able to market its military and political victory and promote the feasibility of the October 7 operation. From here, the discussion becomes about the real crisis that may befall Israel after such a settlement.

One of Israel’s crises after the settlement will be the unity and cohesion of the Israeli government, as there is more than one party publicly threatening to withdraw from it if Netanyahu agrees to the terms of the settlement proposed by Cairo, but it seems that the American decision is quite decisive, and wants to end the battle in the Middle East because it has begun to affect… Strategically, it affects the United States of America and its policies, and has a greater impact on the current administration, which studies show is losing the democratic voting bloc, which constitutes one of the red lines.

The United States cannot take the risk today of covering the Rafah battle in light of the student mobilization in a large number of universities and in various states, because the peak of the American student movements occurred at the moment the battle in Gaza subsided. What would happen if the battles returned and civilians were subjected to a bombing operation similar to what they were subjected to in The first weeks of the war? Even the Israeli side can no longer bear its losses at the popular and diplomatic levels.

Also, ending the war in Gaza cannot be accompanied, according to current data, with its expansion in Lebanon, because Washington’s insistence on calm includes the entire region and not just the Palestinian arena, even if the calculations are completely different, but escalation with Lebanon is prohibited by America and the American administration has constituted a real obstacle. In the face of any escalatory Israeli step against Hezbollah at the height of the war in Gaza, the end of the war there will be accompanied by a ceasefire here, and the opening of the door to actual negotiations on the political arrangements for the south.

In light of all this scene, it becomes understandable that the international endeavor to reach clear points that constitute the broad outline of a possible settlement with Lebanon, knowing that Hezbollah may seek to postpone a decision on any outstanding border issue until after the ceasefire, given that it does not prefer to negotiate under fire. Except in the case of open war.

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