Hezbollah outside the government?

The statement of the head of the Loyalty and Resistance Bloc, MP Mohamed Raad, after his meeting with the President of the Republic, General Joseph Aoun, was noteworthy, as the escalation carried by Aoun’s words came as a result of what party circles call the soft coup that took place the night before the parliamentary consultations, which led to the nomination of Judge Nawaf Salam. As Prime Minister, this raises many questions about the course of the next stage.

The momentum of the era of President Joseph Aoun was expected to be rapid and positive in terms of assignment, formation, giving confidence, and then international and Arab political and financial support, but what happened by calling peace without coordination with the Shiite duo reshuffled the cards, especially since the current stage is critical. Sensitivity to the party and its presence.

Raad’s words suggested two things. The first is that the party will not facilitate the birth of the government, and this will hit the era of President Joseph Aoun to the core and make its launch relatively slow, especially since the party believes that it went with Aoun in exchange for clear political guarantees, and this is what was overturned internally or externally. Therefore, the formation of the government will not take place. Easy. Raad did not clarify whether the party wanted to participate in the government or not.

The second thing that Raad alluded to is that any unsatisfactory participation of the Shiite component will mean that the government is considered unchartered, and therefore the party’s conditions must be taken into account during the formation, and this in itself will prolong the negotiations. However, if the government is formed without the approval of the duo, confidence will not be taken. For many and varied considerations, the country will enter into a spiral of chaos…

Hezbollah may benefit from the desire of the international community, specifically the United States of America and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, to reach a settlement in Lebanon and achieve rapid stability for regional and strategic reasons. Hence, thwarting Aoun’s reign or braking his momentum will lead interested countries to move to meet the party’s demands and reduce the pressure on it.

It is also clear that some of the positive statements of Hezbollah’s opponents yesterday suggest that they are afraid to engage in an uncalculated political confrontation, especially since the duo gives it sectarian and denominational meanings, and this is something that cannot be tampered with within the Lebanese balances. Will the next stage witness a quick solution or a long obstruction?